Putting the Screws to Zach Miner

I have been questioning a perception I hold about Zach Miner. My thinking was that he doesn’t perform that well under pressure. I decided to be fair to him and take a look at the numbers. Baseball Reference has this cool stat known as aLI, Average Leverage Index. It measures the pressure a pitcher is under in a given outing. The stat uses 1.0 as average pressure. Anything below that is low pressure, anything above it is high pressure. I’m also going to look at inherited runners that came around to score when Miner entered a game (because inherited runners that score make me want to break things).

It's been well-publicized that Zach pitched 12 scoreless innings before the fateful October 6 outing in which he allowed 2 earned runs and also earned the ire of many fans. I'm not hanging the loss on him by any means. It just got me thinking when many questioned Leyland's choosing him to relieve Porcello. The twelve innings in which he put up zeros came over eight outings. Of those eight, four had an aLI of over 1.0. In that same span, he only had two inherited runners. They both came from the outing on September 29 vs. Minnesota, and neither of those runners scored.

Let's look at his season in total. Zack pitched 17 outings in which he inherited runners. Of 28 runners inherited, 10 eventually scored for a total of 36%. As far as knowing whether that's good or not, the only data I could find was this older chart from Baseball Reference in 2007. It showed the top 25 in inherited runners scoring percentage. The minimum was 80% relief appearances and 20 inherited runners (with a funny reference to Kyle Farnsworth, so click over). Tops was .05 , and the 25th ranking guy in the league was at .21.

With regard to pitching under pressure, Miner had 21 appearances in which the aLI was over 1.0. In the five most pressure packed outings, he fared pretty well. Here's a brief summary of those:

Game H R BB aLI

6/24 1 1 1 2.68

8/1 2 1 0 3.38

8/22 2 1 0 2.87

9/3 0 0 1 2.30

9/5 2 0 0 3.31

Overall, Miner performed better under the gun than I had anticipated. His strand rate is not the best, so lets just bring him in at the beginning of an inning from now on, shall we?

Yesterday's News

Well, I don't know whether any of you remember the Cleveland series last week. It seems an age ago now, what with the sweeping of the Rays, and the Holiday weekend.

However, I'm going to bring that series back to life for you for just a moment here. You may ask why, since it was the lowly Indians after all, and we've since swept a much better team. Well, it's purely selfish reasons making this train roll.

It's not that often that I take in a full series at the ballpark. I got a chance to do just that for the Cleveland set. It was kind of a fluke, but I was pretty happy nonetheless. So, I kind of want to recap the series here in the ol' blog--hence the selfish reasons. I can only hope that what comes next is worth the time you're spending here, stale subject matter and all.

Tuesday's game was fun, because Polanco and Guillen homered back-to-back in the first inning, and we went on to score two more runs in that frame. Also, Aubrey Huff broke out that game, with a single double, two walks, and three RBIs. The fifth inning was mighty troubling, as the wheels fell off for Jackson. He did manage to get out the inning, but that left four frames to be covered by the pen, which they did quite admirably, other than that homer Miner gave up to Andy Marte (who has a career total of 14 home runs in 614 at bats). Just a question--why do the Tigers LOVE to give up the longball to the unlikeliest of players?

Wednesday's game? Well, I was thrilled to see Porcello go seven strong with only two earned runs and ZERO walks. It was also very odd to see Jhonny Peralta make three errors in a slop-fest on the part of the Tribe. He did make a couple decent plays, too and has a grand total of four errors on the season. So, I'm sure he thought that someone was holding a voodoo doll and was working the pins to perfection every time the ball was hit to the hot corner. Shin-Soo Choo had DHed on Tuesday, but played right on Wednesday, and it was cool, because a guy sitting in my row was a fan of his--they're both from South Korea. I didn't know a ton about Choo, so I quizzed the guy for info. He said that Cleveland didn't want him to play in the WBC this year, but he did, and you may or may not remember that South Korea made it to the finals.

On Thursday, I dragged the kid down to the park to see Nate Robertson's second start of the season. It went pretty well, pretty well indeed! I missed bits of the game here and there, what with trips out for snacks, the bathrooms, an abortive attempt at the ferris wheel (line...miles long) and all, but it was such a beautiful day for a game, and we had a terrific time. Ni had a bit of trouble in the 8th there. That was a little scary. But it kind of worked out, because the game went to extras. And extras, I love extras, well at least I do when they end in a walkoff win! What a 10th. Raburn leads of with a huge double, then they get "smart" and walk Cabrera on purpose, but walk Magglio not on purpose to load 'em up with NO outs for Polanco, who had pinch hit for Avila in the 8th. Mighty Polly steps up the plate, and......hits a sac fly RBI walkoff. Hey, you may say that it was a little anti-climactic to hit a sac fly. I say no way, it's just what we needed. I love someone like Polanco who doesn't try to do too much, but works with what the pitcher gives him. Hurrah Polanco, Raburn, Cabrera and Ordoñez. Hurrah Tigers, because in case you didn't get the subtle subliminal message from the Tigers web site, the Pennant Race is ON!

Here's a little public service message for you, register now for the playoff ticket lottery drawing scheduled for September 16.

Saturday Afternoon at the Park

You’d think that with his blog’s namesake starting a major league game for the first time this season on Saturday, someone like Rogo of DesigNate Robertson would honor the occasion by attending the game in person. Dedication ain’t what it used to be, folks. Although Nate's debut wasn't a total trainwreck, the cars did seem to want to teeter off the track a bit at times. He got hit around a little, and wasn't helped out by some shoddy defense. He was only out there for four innings after pitching on three days rest, so I'm sure judgment will be reserved for another outing.

Mi Magglio had the Tigers' only RBI of the game in the 8th inning. That pretty much tells you our offensive anemia was in full effect.

A funny thing happened at the game. A friend of a season ticket holder I know was there and we were chatting about baseball. He was a casual fan of the game, saying he liked all sports, and has season tickets to the Pistons. Somehow, he got it in his head that I knew a lot about baseball. Some of us were talking about how Galarraga would be back up soon with the club, and he asked whether Robertson would be sent down to make room for him at that time. I said no because of roster expansion September 1. You'd have thought I deciphered the Rosetta Stone, he was so impressed. I felt like such a sham. He kept high-fiving me throughout the game for what he saw as my many baseball triumphs. I promise you I wasn't trying to impress him. He had had a few beers, too, so that should tell you something as well.

I was a little concerned about the bullpen, seeing as we were a man short at the time with two more games left in the series, but Zach Miner did a nice job eating some innings. Ryan Perry looked terrific in the 8th, but was the victim of another error in the 9th.

Anyway, I don't know about you, but it's exciting being in a pennant race, even if we haven't been playing our best baseball all the time. Fun to see the White Sox go on tilt. I'll be at the Cell later this month for a Tigers/Sox game, so I hope Ozzie is in rare (I mean, usual) form.

A Five Inning Game

Just kidding, but it was for me, because that's all I saw: innings twelve through sixteen. We spent the afternoon and evening at the park, stayed for fireworks, and made it home a little before midnight. Imagine my surprise (and delight) to see that the game was still on thanks to extras.

Now, I'm not delighted that we used every single arm in our pen (and watched Galarraga warm up too), but I am delighted that I got to see some Tiger baseball, and that we came out on the winning end of that marathon. Sounds like I missed a stellar outing by Zumaya--good, he needed that. I also missed French's debut, blowing of a six-run lead, a meltdown by Zach Miner, home runs by Thames and Laird, Jim Leyland walking Mauer and Morneau to load the bases in the 11th, and it working, you know--11 innings worth of ball.

I'm sorry to say I did see Polanco take a ball of his package--wince, cringe. He was either none the worse for wear, or angry, because he proceeded to get two RBIs after that to help us on to victory.

Well, we made that victory a lot more difficult than it should have been, but it is a win, and it kept the White Sox from gaining, so that's always a good thing. But now, day game today at the Metrodump. Hmmm, if we could win another there it would be nothing short of incredible. We've come to see wins there as such a rarity, that losses neither surprise nor anger us especially. But winning a series there, now that would be something, wouldn't it? So come on boys, rally 'round Polanco's package and take at least two of three from the Twinks at the dome.

Outlook Grim

When your three options are to break out in hives, break down in tears, or break something in a fit of rage, you know it's been a schrecklich (English wasn't enough here) couple days on the hill (and at the plate, for that matter). I'll say this much, the Detroit Tigers will not be in first place long if we continue to pitch and hit like this.

I really don't know what to say. Galarraga got knocked around like an arcade pinball yesterday, and Willis simply cannot convince the ball to stay in the same zip code as the strike zone. Nate Robertson will have me waking up screaming in the middle of the night with yesterday's performance--and today's? Well, I guess I can say he didn't surrender a grand slam.

It looks to me like Zach Miner will be getting a chance to start again. Although he hasn't copped an attitude (Brandon Inge and Nate Robertson--you could take a note from that), Zach is one guy who just might be entitled to do a little griping about the way he's been used. He'll get a chance now to grab a hold of a rotation spot, I would think.

We get runners in scoring position, and nothing...zippo, popup, GIDP, strikeout, take your stinking pick.

We're looking at interleague matchups against St. Louis, Milwaukee and Chicago. The Cards and Brewers are tied for first in the NL Central at 34-29. The Cubbies are 2.5 games back at .500, just lost two out of three to the Twinkies, but won today to help us retain a 3 game lead over MN. Maybe it's just me, but I don't like being reliant on another team for my baseball fortunes.

Well boys, use tomorrow's off day for some introspection, extra batting practice, or a heart-to-heart with Rick Knapp as appropriate to your personal situation.

Color Me Conflicted

A couple things about our Tigers are starting to get real old.

First, the top of our lineup's slump.  I'm so tired of hearing how many of them are slow starters, they'll get it going, blah, blah, blah.  It's May now.  Let's go ahead and GET it going, k?  I can't stomach too many more feeble GIDP.  The bottom of our lineup, while performing more than admirably, can't carry us all season.

Second, these stinking games in which one bad inning does us in, usually highlighted (lowlighted) by a poor defensive play.  Once again today, what was essentially an error (but scored a hit) by Raburn, costs us 5 runs.  That should have been out number three.  Miner had just done a brilliant job getting Sizemore to strike out.  Then the inning's extended and ka-blowey, a five run lead evaporates.

The euphoria inspired by Adam Everett's slam is quickly replaced by a sickening knot deep in my gut.

Now, that being said, we did pull off the W today.  So, for that, I am thankful.  But I do hope we can resolve the aforementioned items of concern.

Play Ball?

Well, the starting rotation picture continues to shift and confound.   Jeremy Bonderman showed us today that he is indeed not ready.  At times, he looked good, but he lacks arm strength and control.  I'm not really worried about him, he just needs more time.  It's disappointing that he won't be ready for the beginning of the season, because we need all we can get.  We don't want a repeat of last year now do we?  

Zach Miner, on the other hand, wants to show everybody that he does belong in the rotation after all.  He looked pretty stinking good, except for that one solo shot.  He worked all his pitches at a good pace, changing eye levels, and speeds.

Due to my botched DVR job, I didn't see Rapada's or Bonine's work.

Perhaps the latest twist in the Dontrelle Willis saga may lead us to have hope for his situation.  In a bizarre turn, WIllis has been placed on the DL with an anxiety disorder.  I had no idea they could be diagnosed with a blood test now, but I think this may be good news for Willis and the Tigers.  He may be able to come out of the tailspin he's been in.

Sadly, we endured yet another injury in today's game, as Santiago left the game after legging out an infield single, and then tripping over the first baseman's foot as he got to the bag.  It didn't look too terribly serious, but geez. 

On a final note, Opening Day, Opening Day, Opening Day's only 8 days away! 

Men Down!

Jason Beck wrote in his blog today that Zach Miner is out of the running for the 5th starter spot in the rotation.

Hmmmmmm--interesting, seeing that Dontrelle Willis finds the strike zone to be an anathema, and Jeremy Bonderman, though on schedule to sort of be ready by the first week of the regular season has thrown all of 28 pitches in total this spring, and Nate Robertson, although performing well his last two outings, is, you know, Nate Robertson, and um, are we going to be handing him the job?  That brings us to Rick Porcello, and does this mean he may be closer than ever to coming up with the big club?  And would that be a good thing, since as Kurt over at Mack Avenue Tigers points out, Bonderman will only be able to last about five innings at first, and Porcello would also be on a strict pitch count?  Let's overtax our bullpen right out of the gate!  Needless to say, this spring's adventures in pitching have induced a whole lot of Maalox chugging for the Tiger faithful.   I just returned from Costco, where I saved loads of cash buying it in bulk--maybe enough to score Opening weekend tickets off Stubhub.

Pitching Pressure Cooker

In an MLB fantasy preview, ESPN the Magazine's Christopher Harris doesn't bank on Armando Gallaraga replicating last year's impressive performance.  His reasons are fairly compelling.  He points out that Gallaraga's BABIP was .247 last year, well below the usual pitcher's career average of around .300.  Since Gallaraga's not a strikeout pitcher, Harris argues that this year, his strand rate for baserunners may go down considerably from a healthy 75.6%.

Unfortunately, it's hard to argue against all this logic, and for that I apologize.  I'd like to come out with an airtight rebuttal, but I just can't do it.  So this is more gut-wrenching news for our already wobbly pitching foundation.  I didn't hear the game, but Zach Miner got tagged for 7 hits and 5 earned runs over two innings today against the Pirates.  Maybe those folks out on the ledge were right.  No, they were not--the baseball season's a marathon that hasn't even begun yet, so pace your worries people.  Although things have been rocky so far this spring, it's not time to hit the panic button yet.

All I can say is it's no wonder these guys were a bundle of nerves for their first spring outings.  The scrutiny must be a bit overwhelming.  I'm not criticizing, because I'm one of the people clamoring for coverage, just empathizing.

Inherited Runners

One of the maddening parts of last season with the Tigers was the inability to prevent inherited runners from scoring.  Each time a reliever came in with runners on, I cringed, because I knew what was coming.

To me, this statistic is crucial.  We've got to have some arms(minds) that can come in with runners on and prevent them from crossing the plate.  We were absolutely abysmal at this in 2008.  Look at these numbers, our five worst IRA (inherited runners allowed) offenders:

Aquilino Lopez - 29

Bobby Seay - 16

Freddy Dolsi - 12

Zach Miner - 11

Casey Fossum - 10

(Side note, Farnsworth had 7, and he was only a Tiger from the trade deadline on.)

Total for our top (bottom) five:  78 inherited runners allowed

I'll compare this to the totals of the four AL teams that made the playoffs:

Rays - 45

Angels - 48

Red Sox - 59

White Sox - 67

You can see from the list of offenders, these are our core middle relievers (with the exception of Miner who converted to starter.)  So not acceptable, so depressing, so mind-numbing, so making me lose my sanity!