Saturday, October 16, 2010

An Airtight Case

I recently admitted to fellow blogger Rogo of DesigNate Robertson that I would rather the Tigers retain Magglio Ordóñez than sign free agent Adam Dunn. His kind response was "you're nuts." My rejoinder was that I knew it and didn't care.

Let us delve a little further into the demented mind that would choose an aging Ordóñez over the ball-crushing Dunn. To begin, I freely admit my own blind prejudice. Magglio is my favorite player. I want him to retire a Tiger. Of course my reasoning will be colored (note I did not say polluted) by these facts. Therefore, I am not setting out to prove that Magglio is a better player than Dunn. However, I do want to look a little closer at the two to see just how outlandish my preference might be, or whether I can rationalize it with some (nifty massaging) of stats. These stats come to you via Baseball-Reference, a site at which I encourage you to sponsor your favorite Tiger. It helps support the outstanding work at Baseball Reference, and you get the opportunity to place a message on your player's page. Old English D is the proud sponsor of Larry Herndon's player page on Baseball Reference. But I digress. Let's get back to the rigged Ordóñez/Dunn showdown, shall we?


Because Ordóñez' season was cut (tragically) short, and because I don't want to project his numbers (because then folks will cry foul--I mean, I may be biased, but I'm trying to maintain a mere semblance of credibility), I am using stats from Magglio's 2007 - 2009 seasons, while Dunn's offensive numbers are from 2008-2010.



2008 .236/.386/.898/100/40/164/7

2009 .267/.398/.928/105/38/177/8

2010 .260/.356/.892/103/38/199/10



2007 .363/.434/1.029/139/28/79/20

2008 .317/.376/.869/103/21/76/27

2009 .310/.376/.804/50/9/65/19

In looking at these lines, I really don't see that I am totally certifiable in my preference. Yes, Dunn has more home run power, but his OPS isn't blowing Magglio out of the water. He strikes out WAY more, but doesn't GDP nearly as often. Yes, I realize Magglio's power numbers are probably only going to decline as we get into the autumn of his career. However, to bring up the forbidden projections, he was on pace to hit over 20 home runs in 2010, and his slugging percentage was .474, with an OPS of .872. I'm using statistics that favor my position. At least give me credit for admitting my slant, and not feigning impartiality. Thank you.


I'm not going to look at Dunn's work at first base for the Nats in 2010, because we all know he won't see much time at first if he's wearing the Old English D. In 2008 and 2009, playing left or right field, here are Dunn's Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above (below) Average (RTot) numbers

2008 CIN LF -9 (110 games)
2008 ARI RF -6 (23 games)
2008 ARI LF 4 (9 games)
2009 WASH LF -14 (62 games)
2009 WASH RF -13 (22 games)

Now for Magglio's RTot numbers for the same time period:

2008 DET RF -8 (135 games)
2009 DET RF -9 (104 games)

In a July 2009 piece for Sports Illustrated, Cliff Corcoran stated that you could do no worse in left field than Adam Dunn. Ha. I know he'd likely be a full-time DH here in the D, but so what? I'm making my point here. You may recall my earlier caveat. I do not abide by strict rules of rationality and fairness.

So here you have it--a clearly partisan look at Adam Dunn and Magglio Ordóñez. Mi Magglio comes out on top. The best part of my system is that it cannot be refuted! How do you combat faulty logic and homerism? YOU CAN'T! Take that, Rogo. My point has been proven.

Enjoy the Lincecum/Halladay duel this evening, kids.


Rogo said...

You're still nuts.

OldEnglishD said...

I'm glad your profile photo has the word "jerk" on it.